Scenario lab · Demo data
The drivers of these scenarios sit outside Vienna: wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, water stress in Southern Europe, North Africa and the Sahel – they change who moves to Austria and Vienna. Nobody knows the prices of 2030. But you can transparently calculate what-ifs: lasting wars bringing people to Vienna. Water scarcity making Austria a destination. Or simply more of the same. Every assumption is in the open – built to be argued with.
Pick a scenario
Scenarios are calculation paths with open assumptions – not predictions, not investment advice. Your selection drives the district tables below.
Vienna-wide · 2015 to 2030
History: registered land-registry purchase prices (RE/MAX ImmoSpiegel/IMMOunited). Model paths start at the last actual 2025 value; the dashed line shows the base path in real terms (CPI-adjusted). District pages continue to use asking medians. Old starting-point note: 6,200 €/m² (Vienna-wide demo median, 31 Jul 2026). Asking prices are not transaction prices. Real paths are also shaped by rates, regulation and supply, deliberately simplified here.
District view
| District | Growth | ≈ 2030 | Reason |
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| District | Growth | ≈ 2030 | Reason |
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“Restrained” does not mean bad: expensive, fully developed districts grow more slowly than low-base development districts in every scenario.
Why these drivers?
Wars and instability – from Russia's war of aggression to escalation around Iran – shift migration flows. Vienna has always been a city of arrival; a safe, affordable EU location attracts households and capital. Whether and how strongly is open – that is exactly what the scenario is for.
While Southern Europe and the Middle East battle heat and water shortages, Vienna's alpine pipelines deliver spring water from the mountains. If water becomes a location criterion, water-rich cities and green districts gain relative attractiveness.
The baseline reminds us that “nothing special happens” is also a future. Whoever only calculates extreme scenarios systematically overestimates dynamics.
Countryside & villages
| Region | State | ≈ Buy | Note |
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Method & math